Experimental probability | Maths | Quizalize & Oak National Academy

Starter quiz

Two or more events are are mutually __________ if they share no common outcome.

exclusive ✓

exhaustive

inclusive
A survey asked people whether they lived in Oakfield or not, and if they last shopped by online delivery or by going in-store. A random person is selected. Match each event to its probability.

P(lives in Oakfield)

⇔

$125\over200$ ✓

P(doesn't live in Oakfield)

⇔

$75\over200$ ✓

P(shops in-store)

⇔

$130\over200$ ✓

P(shops online)

⇔

$70\over200$ ✓

P(lives in Oakfield and shops online)

⇔

$45\over200$ ✓

P(lives in Oakfield and shops in-store)

⇔

$80\over200$ ✓
A swimming club has 80 members. There are 8 members who swim both front crawl (FC) and butterfly (BF). The value of $x$ is ______.

'10' ✓
This probability tree shows the probability of one of two events occurring. The value of $x$ is ______.

'0.45' ✓
Lucas and Izzy each play one game of squash that they can either win or lose. P(Lucas wins) = 0.6, P(Izzy wins) = 0.7. Use the probability tree to find the probability that they both win their game.

0.12

0.13

0.18

0.42 ✓

0.7
Lucas and Izzy each play one game of squash that they can either win or lose. P(Lucas wins) = 0.6, P(Izzy wins) = 0.7. The probability that at least one of them wins their match is ______.

'0.88' ✓

Exit quiz

An ______ probability can be determined by the number of times an event occurred during multiple trials.

'experimental' ✓
Select the biased spinners.
A toy brick that is dropped could land in one of four possible ways. Sofia drops the toy brick multiple times. Starting with the least likely outcome, place the outcomes in order of likelihood.

1

⇔

Outcome B

2

⇔

Outcome D

3

⇔

Outcome A

4

⇔

Outcome C
A toy brick that is dropped could land in one of four possible ways. Sofia drops the toy brick multiple times. How can Sofia improve her experiment to make it more accurate?

Drop the brick from different heights

Drop different bricks

Drop the brick more times ✓

Drop the brick fewer times
A dropped cone could land in one of two ways. The bar chart shows the results from an experiment. Which calculation shows how to find the experimental probability of the cone landing base down?

$\frac{34+66}{34 \times66}$

$\frac{66-34}{66}$

$\frac{66}{66+34}$

$\frac{34}{66+34}$ ✓

$\frac{34}{66}$
A dropped cone could land in one of two ways. The bar chart shows the results from an experiment. In an experiment with 200 trials you should expect the cone to land base down ______ times.

'68' ✓

Worksheet

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Lesson Details

Key learning points

A set of results can be critically evaluated to help determine if a game/object is fair
Different samples and may affect your perception of fair
The experimental probability of an outcome/event can be calculated from a set of results
Experimental probabilities can be used to estimate an event may occur in a set number of trials

Common misconception

If outcome A occurs more often than outcome B, during an experiment, pupils may conclude that outcome A has a greater probability of occurring than outcome B in future trials.

Even when two outcomes are equally likely to happen, one may occur more often than the other due to chance. You could be more confident about your conclusion if you observe a large difference in results in an experiment with a large number of trials.

Keywords

Experimental probability - The frequency of an outcome from an experiment can be used to produce an experimental probability. This is sometimes referred to as relative frequency.
Fair - A trial or experiment is fair if each outcome has an equal chance of happening. Each outcome is said to be equally likely.
Bias - If there is bias, in a trial or experiment, the outcomes are not equally likely.